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2020年4月
在新型冠状病毒肺炎危机中, 政策制定者正在努力应对减轻病毒对家庭传播的努力可能产生的短期和长期经济影响. Unemployment is rising at an unprecedented pace, 和 the U.S. government is issuing 刺激支付 to hundreds of millions of Americans. 在一份新的报告中，Racial Gaps in Financial Outcomes: Big Data Evidence,澳博官方网站app研究所提供了一个视角，展示了不同人群如何在新冠肺炎引发的经济衰退中管理收入波动. Drawing on data from between 2013 和 2018, 澳博官方网站app研究所发现，与白人家庭相比，黑人和西班牙裔家庭的支出对短期收入波动更为敏感. 这一结果在很大程度上可以用我们观察到的流动资产的巨大种族差距来解释——黑人和西班牙裔家庭的流动资产只有30到40美分，而白人家庭每持有1美元. Our 研究 suggests that even 如果黑, 拉美裔, 和 White families experience the same declines in income during the 新型冠状病毒肺炎 crisis, Black 和 拉美裔 families will 可能 reduce their everyday spending to a greater extent. 因此, 而旨在恢复损失收入的政府项目——包括失业保险和刺激支出——对所有群体都至关重要, such programs will be especially critical for Black 和 拉美裔 families.
公共卫生数据已经显示，新型冠状病毒肺炎对美国的影响在人口群体中分布不均. An 分析 published by the Associated Press (AP) on April 8, 2020年的研究发现，在所研究的州和地区，黑人占新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡人数的42%，尽管他们只占这些地区人口的21%. 在路易斯安那州, one of the three states that we study in our new report, the gap is even starker: at the time of the AP 分析, 70 percent of Louisianans who had died of 新型冠状病毒肺炎 were Black, though Black individuals comprise just 32 percent of the state population.
While the full economic impacts of 新型冠状病毒肺炎 are still unknown, 黑人和西班牙裔家庭可能会比白人家庭经历更大的收入下降. For one, Black 和 拉美裔 workers are slightly 更多的 可能 他们比白人工人按小时支付工资(而不是固定工资)，因此更容易被解雇, 尤其是在短期内. 第二, 研究 indicates that Black 和 拉美裔 workers are less 可能 to have access to 带薪休假. 在2019冠状病毒病的背景下, 这些差距很可能以黑人家庭收入下降幅度更大的形式表现出来. This is concerning in light of our 研究, which shows that Black 和 拉美裔 families earn less than White families to begin with, roughly 70 cents for every dollar earned by White families. Moreover, they have fewer liquid asset reserves to fall back on. For every dollar held by White families, Black families have just 32 cents 和 拉美裔 families just 47 cents.
澳博官方网站app研究所的研究量化了非自愿失业对不同种族群体消费和福祉的不同影响. In an event-study examining families who receive unemployment insurance, we find that a $1.失业导致的收入下降(在计入已领取的失业保险福利后)与非耐用品支出的下降有关.黑人家庭中有46个，为0.在西班牙裔家庭中有43人，而在西班牙裔家庭中则为0.白人家庭中有28人(图1). 因此, while all families tend to reduce spending upon job loss, Black 和 拉美裔 families do so to a larger extent. 这些数字表明，当一个家庭因失业而每月收入减少500美元时, Black 和 拉美裔 families reduce their monthly spending by roughly $230 和 $215, respectively—a $75 to $90 larger cut in spending than White families make ($140), resulting in perhaps one less trip to the grocery store per month.
Figure 1: After involuntary job loss, Black 和 拉美裔 families cut their everyday spending 更多的 so than White families
例如，我们预计在面临中等收入损失的个人中，消费变化也会出现类似的差异, among workers who are not laid off but whose hours are cut. 在同伴中 学术论文, 当雇主提高或降低所有员工的工资时，我们研究了家庭支出的路径. Even in the face of these smaller employer-driven income changes, Black families alter consumption by 50 percent 更多的 than White families, 和 拉美裔 families by 20 percent 更多的 than White families. 例如, 一个月的劳动收入下降500美元，导致黑人家庭的消费下降146美元，西班牙裔家庭的消费下降121美元, compared to $100 for White families.
In addition to describing disparities in families’ responses to income loss, “财务结果中的种族差距”报告还研究了家庭在收到退税后的支出变化. 我们在这个问题上的研究结果告诉我们，家庭可能会如何应对联邦政府根据《澳博官方网站app》授权的刺激支出 关心行为; these 刺激支付 will be similar to 退税 in magnitude (most 退税 和 刺激支付 在1200美元到4000美元之间)和时间安排(家庭可以大致预测他们的到达日期). 在我们的报道中, 我们发现黑人和西班牙裔家庭在收到退税后的支出增加幅度更大. Thirty days after receiving a tax refund, Black families have spent 52 percent of their refund, while 拉美裔 families have spent 49 percent 和 White families just 38 percent (Figure 2). 因此, 同样，黑人和西班牙裔家庭的支出比白人家庭的支出对收入下降更敏感, their spending is also 更多的 sensitive to increases in income. 简而言之, 与白人家庭相比，经济刺激计划可能对黑人和西班牙裔家庭更有帮助，使他们能够维持消费水平，或弥补他们可能推迟的支出.
Figure 2: Thirty days after receiving the tax refund, Black 和 拉美裔 families had spent roughly 50 percent of the refund. White families had spent 38 percent of the refund.
For those whose aim is to reduce racial disparities in financial outcomes, 理解是很重要的 为什么 racial groups exhibit different levels of sensitivity to income changes. 在我们的报道中, 我们发现，流动资产的种族差异几乎完全解释了消费敏感性的差异. We don’t claim to have proven a causal link, 但是当我们控制了流动资产的种族差异(特别以流动资产来衡量) 缓冲, or how many months’ worth of spending one has in liquid assets), racial gaps in the spending response to income fluctuations largely disappear. 因此, 如果黑, 拉美裔, 和 White families all had the same levels of liquid assets, 我们可能会看到，在他们对非自愿失业的支出反应上，几乎没有种族差异, 工资波动, 或者退税的到来.
这些结果表明，寻求减轻新型冠状病毒肺炎经济负担的政策制定者应考虑将工作重点放在流动性资产缓冲最低的家庭上. 这些努力可能采取收入支持计划的形式，如扩大失业保险, 带薪休假, 和 direct 刺激支付; alternatively, policies that help low-liquid-asset families to reduce large expenses (e.g., rent payments 和 medical expenses) or build assets may also be effective. Regardless of the specific policies implemented, decision makers should recognize that without policy intervention, 即使是短期的经济衰退，对于流动性资产较低的家庭来说也是最难度过的, disproportionately so for Black 和 拉美裔 families.
作者:
Diana Farrell: 澳博官方网站app 研究所, President & 首席执行官
Fiona Greig: 澳博官方网站app 研究所, Director of Consumer 研究
Chris Wheat: 澳博官方网站app 研究所, Director of Business 研究
Max Liebeskind: 澳博官方网站app 研究所, 研究 Associate